If only sports betting sites allowed the user to place their bets after a team reaches a certain point total. The Toronto Raptors could make some people a lot of money.
The Secret Stat to Predict a Raptors Win or Loss
The secret statistic that predicts a Raptors win close to 91% of the time is if they score 110 points or more in a game. It’s really simple. Of 38 regular season games up to this point, the Raptors have scored 110+ points in 22 of their games and their record when reaching that benchmark is 20-2. The only two losses were in overtime with the stats suggesting that the team wouldn’t have reached the 110 point benchmark in regulation. Realistically speaking, the Raptors are almost unbeatable when reaching this benchmark.
This is true even after considering key injuries to star players such as Pascal Siakam. In the 11 games up to this point following Siakam’s injury, the team scored 110+ points in 7 games. Of those 7 games, the Raptors came out on top in 6 of them, losing the one in OT.
It might seem naive to narrow down a team’s chances at success to if they can reach some arbitrary point total but that’s the Raptors’ biggest problem right now. Despite suffering what feels like a million injuries to key players, the team always finds themselves in a position to win in most games. That’s primarily attributed to Coach Nurse and the team’s emphasis on defensive intensity every night, as indicated by their #2 defensive rating across all NBA franchises. However, the offence is a different, streaky, inconsistent story.
Injuries continue to Plague Raptors Offensive Production
The Raptors are currently ranked 17th in the league in offensive rating. Just to put in perspective how bad that is, they are currently below the Pistons, Indiana, and Washington. Detroit has been without Griffin for stretches, Oladipo is only now returning to the Pacers lineup and Washington is the only team more injured than the Raptors. If you thought Toronto was struggling with 8 different starting lineups so far this season, how about the Wizards with 17 different starting lineups.
The story of Toronto this season is simple. The defence will always keep the team in games. All the offence needs to do is play above average (110+ points) and the team wins. But 16 times this season, the offence couldn’t play above average, the team scored less than 110+ points and lost 11 of those games.
A large reason for the Raptors’ struggles is due to the lack of playmakers, with injuries taking out most of them. The team currently ranks 23rd in the league in unassisted field goals, indicating the players’ inability to create their own shots. Without Siakam, Gasol, Powell and now VanVleet, the it’s simply Lowry or bust. He’s the one playmaker left. It’s very obvious when Lowry is not on the court as the team looks completely disoriented and the opposing team is much more adept at stopping any scoring opportunity.
Not to point fingers, but…
Looking at individuals, Ibaka has shown time and time again that the passion he plays with is invaluable in an already loaded team but he’s not someone who makes others around him better. McCaw has been decent but doesn’t seem comfortable running an offence by any means. OG is not a playmaker. Neither is Hollis Jefferson or Boucher. All great role players on a contending squad but not what the Raptors need right now. The hopeful bright spot is Terence Davis who came off an impressive starting role debut against the Charlotte Hornets, scoring 23 points. If Davis’ performance wasn’t a fluke and he remains consistent with creating some of his own scoring opportunities, the squad should fare much better with their upcoming schedule.
The Raptors have 11 more games left in the month of January against very subpar competition apart from an away game against Oklahoma City and a home game against the 76ers. This is the time for the Raptors offence to step-up and help the team rebound from their especially poor month of December. The last thing the Raptors need is to fall any lower in the standings and move out of contention for home-court advantage in the playoffs. Again, I know it sounds rather simplistic but some things just are. It’s 110+ points. That’s all you need.